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ACUS11 KWNS 242211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242211=20
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-250045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1892
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

Areas affected...much of central and southwestern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 242211Z - 250045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms including damaging wind and tornadoes are
possible along the warm front into central Illinois, and with other
storms forming along and ahead of the cold front later this evening
into southern Illinois and vicinity.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms currently straddles the warm front,
extending from northern IL into northeast MO. Southern parts of this
line near Pike County MO are showing signs of organization and
rotation, and are close to the warm front. A moist and unstable air
mass exists near this boundary, and favorably strong shear may
result in damaging winds and tornadoes as it treks east/northeast
where 0-1 SRH exceed 200 m2/s2. To the northeast, parts of
east/northeast IL may experience destabilization later this evening
as the low levels jet continues to mix the boundary layer. Farther
south, a pre-frontal band of storms over south-central MO may
eventually become better organized with shear favoring supercells
and/or QLCS structures.

..Jewell/Hart.. 10/24/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pupojZZBjyllYNzq0fuSVt7Xc1GccEZbAGX_nzoYN15VtDX34IcE0pVVP5hneOTBk-Q3sTQK$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 39878736 38608821 37938947 37928984 38309034 39229085
39549096 39859081 40289014 40638953 40958859 41048807
40948764 40798748 40318736 39878736=20



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