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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1897

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Oct 25 03:33:35 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 250333
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250333=20
    ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-250600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1897
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1033 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

    Areas affected...southeast Missouri...central and southern Illinois

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 533...

    Valid 250333Z - 250600Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 533 continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two
    persists across the watch area, and generally will decrease with
    time and eastward extent.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have largely transitioned to a more linear storm
    mode as opposed to isolated supercells, most notably over southeast
    MO where an earlier cluster outbreak of tornadoes occurred. Various
    storms appear to contain damaging wind potential, with a few severe
    gusts measured recently. Shear remains strong across the area ahead
    of the cold front which now extends from western IL into southeast
    MO.

    Surface observations show relatively drier trajectories across TN
    and KY, with 50s dewpoints into IN and parts of southeastern IL. As
    such, the greatest severe threat in the short term will remain from
    central IL into southeast MO where dewpoints remain in the 60s F
    with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Transient supercells remain possible,
    either in isolated or embedded within the lines.

    ..Jewell.. 10/25/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ouyea1NGO7CRLUhB9SU7JgUZNoBiJe7_2xmMg--9nNaA-HZfYay_yeKTyD7qtDPm3NVpqXWo$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

    LAT...LON 39628781 38958806 37998834 37638849 37258894 36818955
    36569036 36559173 36799179 37369106 38119028 38698987
    39438972 40278996 40488955 40458903 40268820 40088785
    39888769 39628781=20



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