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ACUS11 KWNS 251902
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251901=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-252100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1899
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

Areas affected...parts of central and western North Carolina into
south-central Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 251901Z - 252100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Severe risk -- largely in the form of locally strong wind
gusts -- will gradually increase this afternoon and into early
evening. A WW may be required.

DISCUSSION...A band of pre-frontal large-scale ascent -- associated
with a mid-/upper-level vort max crossing western Ohio -- continues
to spread across the Appalachians at this time. Ahead of this band
of cloud cover/precipitation, weak heating/destabilization is
ongoing across an area centered from south-central Virginia into
central North Carolina. Here, temperatures warming into the 70s and
dewpoints increasing into the 60s have resulted in 500 J/kg
mixed-layer CAPE development per recent objective analysis. As
large-scale ascent gradually overspreads this slightly more unstable environment, an increase in coverage/intensity of what thus far has
been weak convection east of the mountains, is expected.

As stronger/southwesterly flow aloft likewise spreads atop the area
of greatest instability, shear will become supportive of organized
storms. While a few rotating cells may evolve initially, which
would include a non-zero tornado risk, upscale growth into
lines/bands is expected -- particularly this evening as the cold
front moves/redevelops east of the mountains. As such, the more
substantial overall risk is likely to be wind.

..Goss/Thompson.. 10/25/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!of0JmvVG2n-WL_AlbeBzwGyjJui1Izt6ERJZO_qxqftit1tq26ijwv8M0CGoyjhDijpwxPTb$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON 35597969 35538083 35958135 36747983 37927859 38047771
37417688 36237739 35847816 35597969=20



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