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ACUS11 KWNS 252146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252146=20
WVZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-252345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1900
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

Areas affected...Portions of southeast Ohio...western West
Virginia...far southwest Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 252146Z - 252345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts appear to be the primary threat
with the more intense storms embedded within a squall line. The
brief and localized nature of the severe threat suggests that a WW
issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A strongly forced convective line of low-topped
thunderstorms has recently developed over the past couple of hours
in southern OH/extreme northeast KY immediately ahead of a decaying
surface low/lee-trough axis. These storms are progressing into a
very marginally buoyant environment (MLCAPE slightly above 100
J/kg), driven primarily by a modestly heated surface airmass (mid
60s F temperatures and low to mid 50s F dewpoints). The 2118Z RLX
VWP depicts nearly 200 m2/s2 0-3km SRH, mainly due to veering within
the surface-1 km AGL layer. As such, the low-topped line of storms
is expected to remain somewhat organized as it crosses the warm
sector, with a couple damaging gusts the main concern and a brief
instance of transient rotation possible. The line is expected to
weaken shortly after sunset as the boundary layer stabilizes and the
line approaches western PA, where persistent cloud cover has
promoted a relatively more stable surface airmass.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 10/25/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!riGP5BmaaJcMUJClTNCwZrX8TfEtEUzGmmiDQzLEW8dfbVaws5AYs3b5GNrUL_M1n5uZpv0N$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...

LAT...LON 38258314 39978261 40638162 40848104 40728052 40598039
40068035 39368048 38808057 38418071 38208108 37968148
37878192 37938256 38258314=20



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