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ACUS11 KWNS 262152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262151=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-TXZ000-262315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1903
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

Areas affected...portions of southwest Nebraska into central Kansas
and northwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 262151Z - 262315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for severe thunderstorms is increasing
within the warm sector, ahead of the cold front/dryline. Damaging
gusts appear to be the main threats though a couple tornadoes and
instances of large hail are also possible. A WW issuance is expected
by 23Z.

DISCUSSION...Latest METAR observations depict the gradual eastward
movement of the dryline and cold front across the central Plains
given the approach of a deepening surface low and couple mid-level
trough. Convective inhibition continues to erode as the boundary
layer mixes and surface temperatures exceed 80F and dewpoints
approach the mid 60s F. 8-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates are
overspreading the warm/moist low level airmass, contributing to
1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Simultaneously, intensifying southerly
low-level flow with the approaching upper trough will contribute to intensifying deep-layer and low-level shear, with up to 50 kts of
effective bulk shear and 400 m2/s2 effective SRH expected to develop
ahead of the dryline in the next few hours, when convective
initiation will occur.=20

Meridional/unidirectional tropospheric wind profiles and strong
forcing for ascent ahead of a merging dryline/cold front suggests
that transient supercell structures will develop and rapidly merge
into line segments/squalls. The well-mixed boundary layer and up to
50 kt 850 mb flow suggests that strong to severe gusts should easily
reach the surface within and in advance of any well-developed storm
cores/line segments. Occasional bouts of large hail are also
expected given the 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates. Though modest,
some low-level directional shear is evident in RAP forecast
soundings, suggesting that the more persistent supercells or
dominant storms embedded within the squall may acquire occasional,
strong low-level rotation, with at least a couple tornadoes
possible. However, the degree of tornado potential will be largely
dependent on the number of discrete/dominant storms that can form
and how long they persist, which remains uncertain. Nonetheless,
organized severe storms are expected in the next few hours, and a WW
will be issued to address this threat.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 10/26/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q9dYV25Z9s_L1lP2DXlIp8pztx-9-0i7KzWfBmNQ2f3RgT5os-sVeXPLACNfigulLLAuY-to$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...

LAT...LON 35769974 36430009 37160018 38090035 39100060 40290093
40840079 41110059 41200025 40849966 40159898 39439854
38429798 37499781 36879785 36309814 35839841 35559897
35589944 35769974=20



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