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ACUS11 KWNS 262240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262240=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-262345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1904
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0540 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

Areas affected...Southern High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 262240Z - 262345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch will likely be warranted by
27/00z across the southern High Plains. Large hail and damaging
winds are expected, along with a tornado or two possible.

DISCUSSION...Leading edge of large-scale forcing for ascent is
spreading rapidly east across the High Plains of eastern NM into
west TX, per latest water-vapor imagery. Over the last hour or so,
cu field along the dryline has thickened/deepened, especially from
Hemphill to Childress County in the eastern TX Panhandle. Other more
isolated moistening thermals are noted as far southwest as Big
Spring TX. The agitated cu field should continue to mature and
thunderstorms will likely evolve over the next few hours.
Strengthening wind fields will easily encourage organized
convection. Initial activity may be supercellular in nature with
upscale growth expected to result in an organized severe squall line
later this evening. Large hail can be expected with supercells
eventually leading to more damaging winds as the linear MCS
propagates toward the I-35 corridor, most likely near/after midnight
across OK, and late tonight across north-central TX.

..Darrow/Hart.. 10/26/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q_chEq0RKbR7uOlLdMi1cNoZWsvd3B1zD3YX-junOWO8GWla8hmuz6O86xP3LWNhrwJks79r$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 32330136 33410069 35210049 35139886 33109898 32030033
32330136=20



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