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ACUS11 KWNS 270310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270309=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-270415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1907
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

Areas affected...portions of southeast Kansas into central and
eastern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 270309Z - 270415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing for portions of
southeastern Kansas into central and eastern Oklahoma as severe wind
producing line segments approach from the west. A WW will be issued
shortly to address the severe threat.

DISCUSSION...Multiple line segments have organized over the past
couple of hours and are approaching the I-35 corridor. These line
segments are progressing within a modestly unstable (1000 J/kg
MLCAPE) but highly sheared airmass. Latest ICT and OKC VWPS depict
60+ kt flow below 1-km AGL, which can efficiently be transported to
the surface in any vigorous cell/line segment. As such, damaging
gusts are anticipated to continue overnight despite the presence of
increasing convective inhibition. In addition, given modest
surface-1 km veering contributing to 400+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, embedded circulations and perhaps a couple brief tornadoes are also possible.
A WW will be issued shortly to account for this scenario.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 10/27/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oVNMDR3FFnwgoBUOQgQj2PPWgMdEyOmY_kTh7MTnUITTfFZ8X8C2gyMA16-SfyXldg7iP_4A$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33819736 36409792 37819777 38419758 38599717 38499654
37969575 37319534 36319523 35179534 34429549 33939582
33699619 33819736=20



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