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ACUS11 KWNS 271444
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271444=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-271645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1913
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0944 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

Areas affected...far northeast TX into northern LA and southern AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 271444Z - 271645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic strong wind gusts and/or a brief tornado will be
possible through the afternoon across far northeast Texas into
northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...Convection is slowly increasing in coverage and
intensity along a developing QLCS ahead of a surface cold front
across eastern TX. A narrow warm sector ahead of this activity will
propagate eastward through the day. Instability is forecast to
remain weak, generally around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE or less. However,
effective shear magnitudes around 40+ kt will be maintained, with
low level hodographs favorably curved for rotating cells within the
line of convection. Weaker instability and an overall less favorable
warm sector compared to further south will generally limit overall
severe potential, but a couple of locally damaging gusts or a brief
tornado will be possible with any stronger/better organized
convection that may develop. Convective trends are being monitored
and a watch may be needed within the next couple of hours.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 10/27/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r8_hqKKcrtCl-wzO8YhxiBT2EUJVErxVXXYOhJvQ39OcwZbKi0qweVLlHC8-mzoJoW_3T7_k$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 32799476 33219471 33439461 33619417 33709348 33559275
33309230 33069210 32699193 32369191 32129198 31919222
31859252 31859299 31719393 31749438 32019455 32489472
32799476=20



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