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ACUS11 KWNS 282236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282236=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-290130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1925
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0536 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021

Areas affected...southern and eastern South Carolina into southern
coastal North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 282236Z - 290130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated cells may affect eastern South Carolina over the
next few hours, and eventually into eastern North Carolina later
this evening. A conditional threat of a tornado will exist.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations show a warm front extending from
eastern GA into southern SC, with low 70s F dewpoints south of the
boundary. Although temperatures aloft are warm, this magnitude of
moisture will lead to sufficient CAPE to support convection.
Low-level shear is quite favorable for rotation assuming a storm
moves into this environment, with 0-1 km values near 300 m2/s2
immediately near the warm front.

Ongoing convection currently over southern SC will need to be
monitored as it potentially translates up the coastal counties this
evening. Additional cells are possible as well due to lift from warm
advection. A brief tornado is conditionally possible, but expected
coverage of severe may not warrant a watch.

..Jewell/Grams.. 10/28/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qL649oxrqTbtaRd4jzBTrb4FwV3WvQ6BVDPUIrrAGhwMtklD39bRfi_Pu-kEz9IjbRsvY5Dk$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON 32558000 32328037 32138055 32148074 32408089 32848085
33777969 34157920 34217877 34157841 34057831 33877831
33797862 33527896 33147913 32558000=20



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