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ACUS11 KWNS 290049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290049=20
FLZ000-290215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1926
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021

Areas affected...South Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 290049Z - 290215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal damaging wind threat will continue for a few
more hours.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has moved on shore near Naples. The
00Z MFL RAOB shows around 1300 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of these storms
with effective shear around 35 knots. This should be sufficient for
maintenance of ongoing activity. However, weak lapse rates and high
freezing levels will limit the hail threat and mostly unidirectional
low-level shear should keep the tornado threat mostly subdued. An
occasional damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out, especially where precipitation loading can strengthen downdrafts. However, even this
threat is quite marginal given the relatively warm temperatures in
the lowest 4-5km which will likely quell stronger updraft
development and likely keep downdraft wind speeds below severe
limits.

..Bentley/Grams.. 10/29/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qLvQZVCEknO6FuCnXQTImMdUTXaiWqAht3jKvlvvykpm_yNAg11J2XM_3wj3qWyBiYp_giqQ$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...TBW...

LAT...LON 26238189 26728100 26968003 26248000 25398021 25198038
25198072 25148102 25338128 25748171 26238189=20



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