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ACUS11 KWNS 291544
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291544=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-291645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1927
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021

Areas affected...extreme northeast North Carolina into southeast
Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 291544Z - 291645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Low-topped convection will pose a modest threat for a
couple of locally strong wind gusts and a brief tornado. At this
time the overall magnitude and spacial extent of any severe threat
does not appear to warrant a WW.

DISCUSSION...An arcing band of low-topped convection extends from
southeast VA into far northeast NC. Activity is developing along a
pre-frontal convergence band extending inland from the Gulf Stream.
A narrow corridor of weak instability is indicated with 500-1000
J/kg MLCAPE along and south of a warm front that extends across
southeast VA. A relatively small window will exist for this
convection to become better organized and capable of producing a
couple of locally strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado
where sizeable low-level hodographs exists across coastal NC and
southeast VA. The inland advance of the warm sector will remain
limited, keeping the spatial extent of the threat relatively small.

..Dial/Hart.. 10/29/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r7Y9LV6KBVJ-1NzNgE14vDhkpogGB501O_O34yde0y4GZ3RvrdEwwzySs6y4oIYeXf4kxPQz$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

LAT...LON 37777595 36187514 35757570 36687623 37727711 37777595=20



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