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ACUS11 KWNS 291936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291936=20
MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-292200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1928
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021

Areas affected...Portions of eastern Virginia...southern/central
Maryland...and Delaware

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 291936Z - 292200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to locally damaging wind gusts are
possible, though a Watch is unlikely this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Broken bands of convection will continue to spread
northward within a broad area of warm air advection located south of
a lifting warm front across portions of the coastal Mid-Atlantic
states. Lower/middle 60s dewpoints located south of the warm front
combined with pockets of diurnal heating are contributing to
generally weak instability amid a favorable vertically veering wind
profile (bulk wind differences of 45 to 55 kts) sampled by the DOX
VAD wind profile. While this environment would generally support the maintenance and perhaps strengthening of ongoing convection
(especially along immediate coastal areas), poor mid-level lapse
rates along with current inflow layers rooted just above the surface
are limiting the overall intensity of convection and related hazards
thus far. Any convection that can become surface-based could pose a
localized damaging wind gust risk, and a brief tornado cannot be
entirely ruled out owing to favorable effective SRH values of 100 to
200 m2/s2 across the warm sector. Regardless, the overall severe
threat appears too marginal to support Watch issuance.

..Weinman/Gleason/Hart.. 10/29/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sfmYL3pM2LiAbfZFEiDZXyqdywRjBweLXICSEpuxBf2-uet7bFsDMiMZVgPw1TpfOGMc6x60$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON 36657597 36587639 36677674 37407679 37937675 38657690
39127670 39107625 38977561 38657493 38247496 37217570
36657597=20



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