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ACUS11 KWNS 032047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032046=20
TXZ000-032215-
Mesoscale Discussion 1929
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Wed Nov 03 2021
Areas affected...South TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 032046Z - 032215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A continued increase in thunderstorm coverage and
intensity is expected through the remainder of this afternoon and
early evening. An isolated stronger storm may produce hail and
gusty surface winds, but a watch is not currently anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop near, and
immediately north of, a southward-moving cold front extending from
near Houston to 50 miles northwest of Laredo TX at 2045z. Additional
storm development is expected over the next few hours, aided
primarily by frontal lift and an approaching shortwave trough in the
presence of MLCAPE averaging 500-1500 J/kg. Despite modest effective
shear, a couple stronger storms over the next few hours may be
capable of producing gusty surface winds and hail. The likelihood of
more than isolated coverage of severe-caliber wind/hail should
remain too low for watch issuance.
..Bunting/Hart.. 11/03/2021
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vwWblkdzgphYIr1ze2jtDIPET5uBqgaVd92Lkh0KZB4peBm0UOvR1zUPfCCTJVlZtaoM1tw6$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...
LAT...LON 26949753 26089729 26119809 26409880 26819920 27619959
28230019 28530024 28939857 29039670 29339581 29359480
28939501 27859665 27219726 26949753=20
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