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ACUS11 KWNS 050830
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050829=20
FLZ000-051100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1930
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 AM CDT Fri Nov 05 2021

Areas affected...South Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 050829Z - 051100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal tornado and hail threat is expected to develop
across parts of south Florida early this morning. The threat should
be too isolated for weather watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Key West shows scattered thunderstorms across the the southern Florida Peninsula with several
discrete cells located in the Florida Keys. A rotating storm was
located just to the northeast of Key West. The cells in the Florida
Keys will continue to move north-northeastward over the next few
hours. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE across the Florida Keys in the
1000 to 1200 J/kg range with slightly weaker instability across the
southern Florida Peninsula. The WSR-88D VWP at Miami has 0-6 km
shear near 45 knots and 0-3 km storm relative helicity has risen to
near 180 m2/s2 over the last hour. This wind profile will support
weak supercell structures along with a marginal tornado threat.The
strongest of cores should be capable of producing hail. The marginal
tornado and hail threat is expected to continue through daybreak as
the more discrete storms move across the eastern Florida Keys and
into areas to the southwest of Miami.

..Broyles/Grams.. 11/05/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tUqNhyOkmg0vXIxdjUIMucZL3inkQnLCKTWco5ozV0i4NwU54TWZNDSKj6bhqBGgHN5jFLvf$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

LAT...LON 24748091 24968033 25448008 25818013 25928040 25908091
25928149 25818172 25608188 25168195 24798172 24748091=20



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