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ACUS11 KWNS 051409
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051409=20
FLZ000-051615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1931
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0909 AM CDT Fri Nov 05 2021

Areas affected...Portions of far southern Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 051409Z - 051615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A damaging gust or brief tornado are possible over the
next couple of hours. A WW issuance is not expected given the brief,
spatially confined nature of the severe threat.

DISCUSSION...While widespread precipitation/thunderstorms have
hampered destabilization thus far across much of the FL peninsula,
the 12Z MFL sounding and some of the latest METAR observations
suggest that a warm front is gradually advancing northward into
Monroe and Miami-Dade Counties. Modifying the 12Z observed MFL
sounding for the KHST or KTMB METAR surface temperatures/dewpoints
(both in the mid 70s) suggests that over 2000/1000 J/kg SB/MLCAPE is
present across extreme southern Florida. Both the observed sounding
and AMX VWPs within the past hour show a modestly curved hodograph
with nearly 200 m2/s2 effective SRH, indicative of some potential
for storms to organize and perhaps demonstrate occasions of
low-level rotation.

At the moment, some convective cells are attempting to organize
offshore Monroe County and are expected to move onshore within the
hour. Given the aforementioned kinematics/thermodynamics in place.
The more organized storms will have the potential to support a
threat for a damaging gust or perhaps a brief tornado. However,
since the severe threat is expected to be marginal and constrained
primarily to Monroe/Miami-Dade Counties (perhaps southern
Collier/Broward Counties) in the near-term, a WW issuance is not
anticipated.

..Squitieri/Goss.. 11/05/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ruujp5jIMFH7EcVEVl2HJ17VnslaAWTw5OhEv9v88Bk0SIHwX7uE9d-wwbWTDKl9S4g-PGNf$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

LAT...LON 25868213 26128161 26228070 26138011 25818000 25488013
25188027 24998050 24908083 24918125 25048184 25868213=20



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