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ACUS11 KWNS 052257
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052256=20
FLZ000-060200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1932
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0556 PM CDT Fri Nov 05 2021

Areas affected...parts of central Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 052256Z - 060200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms may eventually produce strong to locally
damaging wind gusts as they progress along the boundary this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis and radar show a boundary near a
Sarasota to Titusville line, which is slowly progressing south and
east. The air mass north of the front is much cooler and stable, but
low 70s F dewpoints are contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE ahead
of the front, with the stronger values near the Gulf of Mexico.
Several stronger areas of convection were noted on radar from
Sarasota to Polk Counties as of 23Z, and an isolated severe storm
cannot be ruled out through evening given persistent lift of a moist
air mass beneath strong, front-parallel flow aloft.

Storm trends will continue to be monitored through evening.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 11/05/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!paAE-TiZovsurxYX_z0nKGG7lMCBIcFJCtXj27d0aITQQxJ2M_fGUHB1pzedfteFC1zl2ary$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON 27298259 27468256 27698200 28068152 28448094 28808063
28538049 28158057 27688030 27508032 26378211 26718232
27038251 27298259=20



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