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ACUS11 KWNS 091902
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091902=20
WAZ000-092130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1933
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 PM CST Tue Nov 09 2021

Areas affected...Coastal western Washington

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 091902Z - 092130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...The potential exists for a thunderstorm-related strong
wind gust and/or a waterspout or brief tornado this afternoon in and
near coastal portions of Washington.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery indicates some increase and
deepening of low-topped convection through mid/late morning
offshore, with a corresponding uptick in isolated lightning flashes.
This is related to a steepening of lapse rates within the
post-frontal environment as a potent shortwave trough/jet streak
influences the region. Modest near-shore/coastal destabilization
will continue to occur amid cloud breaks. Bands of convection will
continue to move onshore through late morning, with additional and
potentially stronger/more cellular low-topped thunderstorms evolving
and spreading toward the coast/inland this afternoon. Supported by
35-45 kt southwesterly winds within the lowest 1-2 km AGL (per
KRTX/KATX WSR-88D VWP data), a convectively enhanced wind gust
and/or a waterspout or brief tornado could occur in coastal portions
of Washington through the afternoon.

..Guyer.. 11/09/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oes4J7aZeoiiuL1PlTv88aHjmwsLwHMrOF9w8f56WFZfumWbR4lA_t7XulK1T_baU6IYd_0N$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SEW...PQR...

LAT...LON 48282383 47832363 46892326 46622360 46492394 46702434
48342502 48282383=20



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