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ACUS11 KWNS 101927
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101926=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-102130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1935
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

Areas affected...the central third of Oklahoma and vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 101926Z - 102130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...WW issuance is expected this afternoon -- possibly around
21Z -- in anticipation of storm development near/ahead of an
advancing surface front. All-hazards severe weather -- including
potential for very large hail and a couple of tornadoes -- is
expected.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite loop shows deepening cumulus
development across northwestern Oklahoma near the western edge of a
broad cloud shield, where insolation/boundary-layer destabilization
is occurring. Farther east, breaks in the cloud shield are evident, contributing to an expanding zone of 1000-plus J/kg mixed-layer CAPE
now indicated by objective analyses.=20=20

The current flow field across this region is sufficient for updraft organization/rotation, with low-level southerly flow
veering/increasing to southwesterly at 50 kt at mid levels, per the
latest KTLX WSR-88D VWP. As such, initial storm development will
likely become supercellular, with very large hail possible along
with potential for locally strong wind gusts. Tornado threat would
also exist locally, near any of these initial storms.

With time, storm mode is expected to become more linear, as main
convective initiation focuses along the advancing cold front. As
such, greater wind risk along with a concurrent decrease in
potential for very large hail is expected into the evening. Some
tornado threat may linger, though shear does not appear overly
favorable for substantial/numerous low-level QLCS circulations.

..Goss/Guyer.. 11/10/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p9yp9YKFUZius0XzcaVpYvchDoGSiwrAqphFpc_UdKEWQJCKPDwmV4l0n6H8Mj5M56GyP6Fi$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 36429822 37239753 37249735 37209631 36489600 34639674
34339713 34539846 35449858 36429822=20



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