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ACUS11 KWNS 102306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102306=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-110100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1937
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0506 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

Areas affected...parts of north Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 102306Z - 110100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of damaging hail, strong gusts and perhaps
a brief tornado are expected to affect parts of north Texas this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front from central OK
into northwest TX, with a dryline from near Wichita Falls extending southwestward toward San Angelo. While dewpoints are only in the
55-60 F range, temperatures aloft are quite cold which is maximizing instability. A 21Z sounding from OUN showed 2000 J/kg MUCAPE,
despite little heating today.

Visible imagery shows towering CU near the cold front/dryline
intersection approaching the Wichita Falls area. One or more
supercells may eventually form out of this area, with storms
forecast to progress east/southeastward this evening.

Lengthening hodographs as well as steep lapse rates aloft with 500
mb temperatures near -17 C suggest damaging hail will be possible as
storms move east/southeast along and south of the Red River. A brief
tornado may occur as well, as low-level shear remains favorable
prior to the cold front passing. However, low-level winds are
forecast to rapidly veer this evening.

..Jewell/Edwards.. 11/10/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rivEkDK9-8FQWRgc5PO3nZ3z7D7DXcEby9XqzEwQ-4p9bYYz9Rew6D2pWF7OeiHmWQe6eKcx$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34289674 34109555 33929504 33529492 33029494 32659544
32429606 32389696 32479793 32579891 32849899 33269877
33689878 34259895 34499858 34429769 34289674=20



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