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ACUS11 KWNS 102330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102329=20
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-110130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1938
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

Areas affected...portions of northeast Kansas into northwest
Missouri and far southwest Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 546...

Valid 102329Z - 110130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 546
continues.

SUMMARY...A limited severe threat continues across Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 546, with damaging gusts the primary threat,
though some small hail is also possible.

DISCUSSION...An analysis of the latest METAR observations depict a
surface low, located roughly along the northeast KS/southeast NE
border, which continues to progress northeastward along with a
trailing surface cold front across eastern KS. A marginally buoyant
airmass is gradually advecting northward across central into
northern MO, characterized by a surface airmass of near 70 F
temperatures/upper 50s F dewpoints, overspread by 7-8 C/km mid-level
lapse rates (per 23Z mesoanalysis).=20

Latest KEAX radar data shows modest upscale growth of convection
across eastern KS, which is progressing eastward towards the
marginally buoyant airmass of 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While 30-40 kts of
effective bulk shear is present across central into northern MO, the approaching convection is not overly robust, and buoyancy is
expected to remain mediocre through the evening. Predominantly
linear modes of convection suggest that a couple of strong to
damaging wind gusts and bouts of small hail remain possible this
evening. An additional WW issuance is not expected into northern or
western MO, though a local WW extension may be done.

..Squitieri/Edwards.. 11/10/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pVoVHvW47N4ck3JutsdH1BPxyauGRufjRF88kLQ-P4Uf-xGrlSPSztCd-RRxBXP5rDa1m-M8$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 38249643 39279590 39639539 39849495 40189432 40489369
40629328 40489304 39699342 39169361 38739377 38539391
38259426 38079540 38249643=20



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