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ACUS11 KWNS 110720
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110719=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-110945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1941
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021

Areas affected...South-central Arkansas...Northwest Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 110719Z - 110945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage threat along with a potential for
a brief tornado should persist for a couple hours from south-central
Arkansas into northwest Louisiana. The threat is not expected to be
great enough for weather watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Shreveport shows a linear
MCS currently moving across far northwest Arkansas extending
southwestward into northeast Texas. The line of storms is located
along the eastern edge of a corridor of maximized low-level
moisture, with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 750 J/kg
range. In spite of the weak instability near the front, moderate
deep-layer shear is present with 40 knots of 0-6km shear evident on
the Shreveport WSR-88D VWP. This combined with about 35 knots of
flow near 850 mb may be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat or
potential for a brief tornado early this morning. The QLCS is
expected to weaken as it shifts further east into Arkansas and
Louisiana.

..Broyles/Grams.. 11/11/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!t2-xqOQ4JRtYFftm4dR-CJmakTngz3igv0H-R9di5WW_4ZYRB6lNb8QnG_5zpc48Ib8j_E0X$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 32859215 33849182 34529186 34829210 34899276 34679325
34369335 33459357 32939382 31899407 31819270 32859215=20



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