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ACUS11 KWNS 111808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111808=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-112015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1942
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CST Thu Nov 11 2021

Areas affected...central into southwest AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 111808Z - 112015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A localized risk for damaging gusts may materialize over
the next couple of hours. The coverage/intensity of gusts will
preclude a severe thunderstorm watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a developing squall line over
west-central AL extending south-southwestward into east-central MS
as of 12pm (18 UTC). The airmass ahead of the developing convective
line continues to heat/destabilize with 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE
estimated per modified 12z NAM forecast soundings. It is noted that
the RAP/SPC mesoanalysis is under-forecasting CAPE due to a too-dry
depiction of the boundary layer with surface dewpoints 3-5 degree F
too cool compared to observations. Surface to 2-km lapse rates have
steepened considerably (near 8-9 deg C/km). Given the wind profile
supports storm organization, a couple of strong and possibly
damaging gusts are plausible as the squall line moves eastward
across central AL through mid afternoon.

..Smith.. 11/11/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oo5GF74k8Wdrhkud0Oefg8wLjDIqwK89kQA6R9OwbMO63ECzItreO6mLJ4V-yK7dDTfDfkiz$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 31768852 33598744 33698664 33448625 32098697 31598772
31768852=20



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