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ACUS11 KWNS 121725
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121724=20
CTZ000-NYZ000-121900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1943
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CST Fri Nov 12 2021

Areas affected...eastern Long Island...CT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 121724Z - 121900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for isolated wind damage cannot be ruled out
over the next hour or so as a rotating convective cluster moves
north over eastern Long Island and into CT.

DISCUSSION...KOKX radar imagery has shown a long-lived rotating
cluster of convection moving north from the shelf waters of the
Atlantic to the south coast of eastern Long Island. The KOKX VAD
wind profile shows intense flow fields with an enlarged hodograph.=20
The main limiting factors are scant buoyancy and very weak lapse
rates. Nonetheless, the storm-scale forcing associated with the
hybrid rotating cluster of convection may enable the risk for
damaging gusts to be realized on a localized basis, as the
convection moves north from eastern Long Island into CT over the
next 1-2 hours.

..Smith/Hart.. 11/12/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!u5CgCzMzKTHjaT-hBQkRQFqw7bbFdQrXA4lMJvqXChlwpJRozHet-i7n-4MFTsePla1Ille5$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...

LAT...LON 40777285 41747245 41917216 41657199 40807252 40777285=20



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