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ACUS11 KWNS 122001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122001=20
MAZ000-122130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1944
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 PM CST Fri Nov 12 2021

Areas affected...southeast MA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 122001Z - 122130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Mini supercells embedded within a rain shield will
continue north towards southeast MA over the next 1-2 hours. A
brief tornado and/or wind damage are possible.

DISCUSSION...KBOX radar imagery shows a few weak mesocyclones to the
southwest of Martha's Vineyard moving to the north and approaching
the MA coast over the next hour. The airmass continues to slowly
destabilize near the coast with temperatures in the lower 60s with
dewpoints ranging from 58-60 deg F. The KBOX VAD shows intense
low-level wind shear with 70 kt flow sampled at 1 km MSL. The
observed storm motion is resulting in around 250 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH
per the KBOX VAD (less than the 500 m2/s2 implied using the Bunker's
storm motion estimate). Given the weak buoyancy and
slow-to-destabilize marine layer near the coast, it seems the severe
risk will remain isolated. However, a brief tornado and/or wind
damage could accompany any supercell moving ashore in southeast MA
during the next couple of hours.

..Smith/Hart.. 11/12/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tSdsEPR67r94suPrJbMQVobUAkVc5cOQe21KnoKEWL2pIZi1Uo8xIO41c_49Fch7eqlROANA$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...

LAT...LON 40827120 41777074 41947032 41516994 40767078 40827120=20



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