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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1944

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Nov 12 20:01:51 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 122001
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 122001=20
    MAZ000-122130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1944
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0201 PM CST Fri Nov 12 2021

    Areas affected...southeast MA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 122001Z - 122130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Mini supercells embedded within a rain shield will
    continue north towards southeast MA over the next 1-2 hours. A
    brief tornado and/or wind damage are possible.

    DISCUSSION...KBOX radar imagery shows a few weak mesocyclones to the
    southwest of Martha's Vineyard moving to the north and approaching
    the MA coast over the next hour. The airmass continues to slowly
    destabilize near the coast with temperatures in the lower 60s with
    dewpoints ranging from 58-60 deg F. The KBOX VAD shows intense
    low-level wind shear with 70 kt flow sampled at 1 km MSL. The
    observed storm motion is resulting in around 250 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH
    per the KBOX VAD (less than the 500 m2/s2 implied using the Bunker's
    storm motion estimate). Given the weak buoyancy and
    slow-to-destabilize marine layer near the coast, it seems the severe
    risk will remain isolated. However, a brief tornado and/or wind
    damage could accompany any supercell moving ashore in southeast MA
    during the next couple of hours.

    ..Smith/Hart.. 11/12/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tSdsEPR67r94suPrJbMQVobUAkVc5cOQe21KnoKEWL2pIZi1Uo8xIO41c_49Fch7eqlROANA$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOX...

    LAT...LON 40827120 41777074 41947032 41516994 40767078 40827120=20



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