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ACUS11 KWNS 282303
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282302=20
PAZ000-NYZ000-290400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1952
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 PM CST Sun Nov 28 2021

Areas affected...Portions of western NY and far northwestern PA

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 282302Z - 290400Z

SUMMARY...A narrow band of lake effect snow capable of producing
heavy snowfall, with rates of 2+ inches per hour, will continue
through the evening while gradually shifting southward.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery from KBUF shows a narrow band of
heavy lake effect snowfall present over parts of southwestern NY
downstream from Lake Erie. This band is well organized, and will
likely persist through the evening while gradually shifting
southward into parts of far northwestern PA. Cold mid-level
temperatures associated with an upper trough/low over the Great
Lakes and seasonably warm water temperatures on Lake Erie are
supporting weak boundary-layer instability, with multiple lighting
flashes noted within the band over the past hour or so. The presence
of steep low/mid-level lapse rates, a saturated moisture profile,
and strong lift associated with the upper trough will help to
maintain this heavy snow band for the next several hours, with
snowfall rates in the band of 2+ inches per hour likely. As the
upper trough continues eastward this evening, low/mid-level winds
will gradually veer to a more northwesterly component versus
westerly, and the band should slowly shift southward accordingly
before eventually weakening late this evening/early Monday morning.

..Gleason.. 11/28/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tWv_DjgXgwOiWaazZ32iLAlEn3tXHthH4vw9Lr7UVjRxCJbPhr5eQ7NYlVMjtW4qm5Gs8MAM$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE...

LAT...LON 42098028 42307958 42497890 42477787 42457715 42347710
41967757 41657826 41637914 41667986 41868034 41998040
42098028=20



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