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ACUS11 KWNS 041640
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041639=20
MIZ000-041945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1954
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1039 AM CST Sat Dec 04 2021

Areas affected...Southwest Alger and northern School Craft Counties
in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 041639Z - 041945Z

SUMMARY...Heavy lake effect snow is expected to continue in
southwest Alger and northern School Craft Counties into the
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A lake effect snow band has developed from near the
Keweenaw Peninsula to near Grand Island and it dissipates near the
border of Schoolcraft, Luce, and Mackinac counties. There are no
observations within this band to observe current snowfall rates, but
based on radar and satellite presentation, 2+ inch per hour snowfall
rates are likely with 3+ possible. Over the past 2 hours,
convergence has increased between KCMX and P59 near the origination
point of this lake effect band. Therefore, expect it to maintain
intensity (or possibly even strengthen) over the next hour or two
and continue into the afternoon. Current observations and forecast
conditions would suggest very little shifting of this band through
the afternoon with the same locations possibly being impacted
continuously. Inversion heights eventually lower through the
afternoon which may start to weaken this band by evening. In
addition to the heavy snow, winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts 30 to
35 mph are present in the entire region. This is causing significant
blowing and drifting which will further lower visibility.

..Bentley/Hart.. 12/04/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vJ1KIz1nW6Y9Bidda5iaHafM-VEjlU9w6AETtwQpdVxAvKL50NGQVbFKP0MEYjj01hNELDU7$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...

LAT...LON 46638632 46458593 46298588 46258609 46378656 46498661
46638632=20



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