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ACUS11 KWNS 051022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051022=20
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-051615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1957
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0422 AM CST Sun Dec 05 2021

Areas affected...central and northeastern Minnesota into northern Wisconsin/western Upper Michigan

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 051022Z - 051615Z

SUMMARY...A band of moderate to heavy snowfall will shift gradually
eastward and northward across central and northeastern Minnesota,
northern Wisconsin, and into western Upper Michigan. Rates
exceeding 1" per hour are expected in heavier bands.

DISCUSSION...A mid-level vort max -- now crossing southern and
eastern North Dakota per water vapor imagery -- is forecast to dig east-southeastward with time. As this occurs, a north-northwest to east-southeast zone of warm advection/isentropic ascent will
persist, as southerly low-level flow near 50 kt shifts eastward
across the upper Mississippi Valley region through midday. This
ascent will allow a band of moderate to heavy snowfall -- currently
ongoing from north-central North Dakota to east-central Wisconsin --
to continue. With time, the band is expected to drift slowly
northward, focusing from central/northeastern Minnesota to northern Wisconsin/western Upper Michigan through late morning. As this
occurs, some increase in intensity of the band is expected,
corresponding with some enhancement in snowfall rates with time.=20
Within the heaviest portions of the band, snowfall rates in the 1"
to 1 1/2" per hour range are expected. As the upper system
advances, a gradual west-to-east shift of the area of heaviest
snowfall is expected, tapering with time across North Dakota, and
spreading across Lake Michigan toward northern Lower Michigan
through late morning.

..Goss.. 12/05/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vodXYcMl2c1WentJfStBW87qRc8tg_DD9w2C8p-Qwx_2ss5UDc77zZ8vPqvgKwdVaBwA9Lhu$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON 47329481 47759350 47889178 47819051 47178983 46218744
45528718 45068746 44908945 45539075 46569332 46669485
47329481=20



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