• DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Resent 1

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Dec 6 01:44:32 2021
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    ACUS01 KWNS 060144
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 060142

    Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0742 PM CST Sun Dec 05 2021

    Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
    REGION INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Arklatex region to the
    Mid-South and lower Ohio River Valley this evening into the
    overnight.

    ...01Z Update...
    Moisture continues to advect northward ahead of a cold front
    positions from north-central Oklahoma in central Missouri and
    central Illinois. Over the next 3-4 hours, storm coverage should
    increase along the front from northwest Arkansas northeastward into
    western Kentucky. With deep-layer winds parallel to the front, a
    linear storm mode will quickly be favored. However, some high
    resolution guidance does suggest some possibility of more discrete,
    pre-frontal development in parts of northern Arkansas. Should this
    occur, a conditionally higher threat for a tornado would exist. The
    observed 00Z Little Rock sounding showed an enlarged low-level
    hodograph with over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH. The most probable
    outcome appears to be squall line moving southeastward through
    Arkansas and western Tennessee/Kentucky capable of damaging wind
    gusts and a couple of QLCS tornadoes. Though mid-level forcing will
    be stronger farther northeast into southern Ohio, much more limited
    buoyancy should keep damaging gust potential more isolated.

    Within the Sabine River Valley, some potential for isolated storms
    to develop within a warm advection zone exists towards Monday
    morning. Steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear
    would support a marginal threat for large hail and damaging winds.

    ..Wendt.. 12/06/2021

    $$


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jan 1 07:52:28 2022
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS01 KWNS 010752
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 010750

    Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0150 AM CST Sat Jan 01 2022

    Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

    ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS
    OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Widespread thunderstorms are expected from the ArkLaTex to the
    Western Appalachians today. All severe-weather hazards are possible
    in parts of these areas, including large hail, damaging winds, and
    tornadoes. Strong tornadoes are possible.

    ...Northeast TX to Western Appalachians...

    Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper
    vort/short-wave trough along the southeast AZ/NM border, shifting
    northeast in line with latest model guidance. Dominant upper ridging
    over the southeastern US will move little during the day1 period
    which will force this short wave across MO into the OH Valley where
    it will deamplify within the broader, strong southwesterly flow
    regime. Resultant mid-level height falls are not forecast to be that
    strong across the warm sector which will encourage the most
    concentrated convection to congregate along/near the frontal zone. Additionally, weak surface low is forecast to track northeast along
    the wind shift in response to the ejecting short wave from AR at
    daybreak to WV by 02/00z.

    Low-level warm advection is currently (0530z) aiding a corridor of
    maturing thunderstorms from north-central TX-southeast OK-northern
    AR. This activity will likely prove to be the western-northern edge
    of strong/severe convection at the start of the period. 00z
    soundings across the warm sector were considerably capped this
    evening and forecast soundings across portions of the warm sector
    later today continue to suggest a relative warm layer near 700mb
    which is expected to limit lapse rates through this layer. It's not
    entirely clear how much discrete warm sector development will occur
    at lower latitudes but wind profiles/low-level shear certainly favor
    supercells and tornadoes, and potentially a strong tornado or two.
    Higher confidence in thunderstorm coverage exists with frontal
    convection. Storm mode will be considerably messy with line segments
    and clusters along/near the wind shift. Even a few embedded
    supercells can be expected given the observed strong wind fields.
    01/00z NAM suggests 65kt LLJ will translate ahead of the short wave
    from northern MS/southern AR early, across MS/western TN by 18z,
    then into eastern KY by early evening. This reflects the stronger
    forcing and likely the primary corridor for more concentrated
    strong/severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds and tornadoes are the
    primary risks, though some hail may be noted across western/central
    portions of the outlook.

    ..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/01/2022

    $$


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