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ACUS11 KWNS 061318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061317=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-061515-

Mesoscale Discussion 1967
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0717 AM CST Mon Dec 06 2021

Areas affected...central Louisiana vicinity into southwestern
Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 061317Z - 061515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing/limited severe risk may modestly/gradually
increase over the next 1 to 2 hours. A WW may be considered,
depending upon convective evolution.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a lone supercell -- which
likely produced a small/brief tornado earlier -- moving eastward
across Vernon Parish in western Louisiana. The storm remains
well-organized, with a cyclic increase in low-level rotation noted
once again, in the latest volume scan. With low-level flow
veering/increasing with height through the lowest 1km per recent
KPOE VWP, shear is sufficient to support continued low-level
rotation with this storm, given background mixed-layer CAPE in
excess of 1000 J/kg.

Meanwhile, an increase in convective coverage is ongoing across
northern Louisiana, ahead of the narrow/forced frontal band just to
the northwest. With an environment at least marginally supportive
of organized updrafts as noted, an additional supercell or two
cannot be ruled out. While severe risk is expected to remain
limited in coverage, we will monitor convective evolution for any
signs that areal risk could become sufficient to warrant WW
consideration.

..Goss/Edwards.. 12/06/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tmfZ-yt0lyJBTluLL_wkLi0jJAb8vzo_x1LHrUiaF-fcnGtfezc1uzyBpWZjj6y6HBYuAFY7$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 30909367 31449378 31959347 32649215 33059041 32238982
31479088 30859216 30589346 30909367=20



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