• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1968

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Dec 6 16:06:42 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 061606
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061606=20
    GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-061800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1968
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1006 AM CST Mon Dec 06 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of central and southern Alabama...adjacent
    portions of western Georgia...southern Mississippi and adjacent
    portions of northeastern Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 061606Z - 061800Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will continue to develop along and
    ahead of a southward advancing cold front through 1-2 PM CST, posing
    a risk for a few potentially damaging wind gusts and, perhaps, an
    isolated tornado or two. While the damaging wind/tornado risk
    appears low enough that a severe weather watch may not be needed,
    trends will continue to be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...A mid-level speed maximum (50-60+ kt around 500 mb)
    might have contributed to organization of an evolving cluster of
    storms that is currently overspreading central Alabama. By 18-19Z,
    this jet streak is forecast to rapidly propagate east-northeastward,
    into and through the Georgia and South Carolina piedmont, where weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and slow/limited modification of
    generally stable boundary-layer conditions appear likely to preclude
    an appreciable risk for severe weather.

    Models indicate that seasonably moist boundary-layer air will remain
    confined to along and ahead of the southward advancing cold front,
    across and east-northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley. Even
    here, weak lapse rates are limiting CAPE to 500-1000 J/kg or less.=20
    Given the lack of stronger potential instability, deep-layer wind
    fields and shear appear only marginally supportive of continuing
    organized strong thunderstorm development with the potential to
    produce a few damaging wind gusts and/or, perhaps, an isolated
    tornado. This is expected to remain generally focused within a
    corridor of stronger forcing immediately ahead of the front,
    advancing south of the Interstate 20 corridor through early
    afternoon, where low-level shear (beneath a 30-40 kt 850 jet axis)
    is also strongest.

    ..Kerr/Hart.. 12/06/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!snkdyYhpl3s5khmCGF4FxCuqooKJAYt62OWNumePq10WZqKEZ7p1CubTGbWvsnyYlBIRiw_z$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...SHV...

    LAT...LON 33718684 34038469 32728518 31808699 30998998 31649235
    32818871 33718684=20



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