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ACUS11 KWNS 061606
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061606=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-061800-
Mesoscale Discussion 1968
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1006 AM CST Mon Dec 06 2021
Areas affected...Parts of central and southern Alabama...adjacent
portions of western Georgia...southern Mississippi and adjacent
portions of northeastern Louisiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 061606Z - 061800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will continue to develop along and
ahead of a southward advancing cold front through 1-2 PM CST, posing
a risk for a few potentially damaging wind gusts and, perhaps, an
isolated tornado or two. While the damaging wind/tornado risk
appears low enough that a severe weather watch may not be needed,
trends will continue to be monitored.
DISCUSSION...A mid-level speed maximum (50-60+ kt around 500 mb)
might have contributed to organization of an evolving cluster of
storms that is currently overspreading central Alabama. By 18-19Z,
this jet streak is forecast to rapidly propagate east-northeastward,
into and through the Georgia and South Carolina piedmont, where weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and slow/limited modification of
generally stable boundary-layer conditions appear likely to preclude
an appreciable risk for severe weather.
Models indicate that seasonably moist boundary-layer air will remain
confined to along and ahead of the southward advancing cold front,
across and east-northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley. Even
here, weak lapse rates are limiting CAPE to 500-1000 J/kg or less.=20
Given the lack of stronger potential instability, deep-layer wind
fields and shear appear only marginally supportive of continuing
organized strong thunderstorm development with the potential to
produce a few damaging wind gusts and/or, perhaps, an isolated
tornado. This is expected to remain generally focused within a
corridor of stronger forcing immediately ahead of the front,
advancing south of the Interstate 20 corridor through early
afternoon, where low-level shear (beneath a 30-40 kt 850 jet axis)
is also strongest.
..Kerr/Hart.. 12/06/2021
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!snkdyYhpl3s5khmCGF4FxCuqooKJAYt62OWNumePq10WZqKEZ7p1CubTGbWvsnyYlBIRiw_z$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...SHV...
LAT...LON 33718684 34038469 32728518 31808699 30998998 31649235
32818871 33718684=20
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