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ACUS11 KWNS 061908
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061908=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-062115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1969
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 PM CST Mon Dec 06 2021

Areas affected...Parts of southwestern Georgia...southern Alabama...southeastern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 061908Z - 062115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some intensification of thunderstorm development is still
possible late this afternoon, particularly across parts of south
central through southeastern Alabama by 3-4 PM CST. While this may
be accompanied by the risk of a few strong wind gusts and/or,
perhaps, a tornado, it still seems unlikely that a severe weather
watch will be needed. Trends, however, will continue to be
monitored.

DISCUSSION...There has been some weak boundary-layer destabilization
ahead of the line of more vigorous thunderstorm development, which
continues to advance southward near/just ahead of the cold front.=20
Convection along the line appears to have been periodically enhanced
by subtle mid-level perturbations/speed maximum within the weak
branch of westerlies emanating from the subtropical Pacific.=20
However, the primary mid-level short wave impulse, within the
mid-latitude westerlies, is passing well to the northeast of the
region, and deep-layer mean wind fields are generally maintaining
modest strength or slowly weakening across the Gulf Coast vicinity.

Still, a lingering belt 30-40 kt west-southwesterly to westerly flow
in the 850-700 mb layer, coincident with the line of storms, may be
sufficient to maintain continuing risk for a few strong surface
gusts and/or an isolated tornado through the remainder of the
afternoon. With further boundary-layer destabilization still
possible, there might be some intensification of ongoing storms,
particularly across parts of south central through southeastern
Alabama by 21-22Z.

..Kerr/Hart.. 12/06/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uYIHTqenD4rWiAc_mNMqcuKJuneu5Rct8U26rSG44Z77lBZC_3W3v0P8S3UPDFmkSPxVxp9d$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 31008966 31448840 32238777 32348648 32478537 32858477
32728434 31018525 30608760 30769048 31008966=20



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