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ACUS11 KWNS 080650
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080649=20
FLZ000-080845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1970
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CST Wed Dec 08 2021

Areas affected...Central portions of the FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 080649Z - 080845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Potential may continue another hour or two for isolated,
nearly surface-based supercell formation in a band of convection
extending west-southwest/east-northeast across the discussion area.=20
In a marginally favorable environment, a brief tornado may occur.=20
The threat appears too isolated, short-lived and conditional for a
watch.

DISCUSSION...At 0630Z an isolated, weakening supercell was noted
over eastern Walton County, just onto the cool side of a
quasistationary to weakly warm frontal zone. This activity was in
the eastern part of a loosely organized band of convection extending west-southwest past Ft. Walton Beach. That boundary was analyzed
from there west-southwestward toward the mouth of the Mississippi
River, and extends northeastward into cooler air on both sides over
southern GA. A baroclinic/marine boundary extends from near the
convection southeastward across Apalachee Bay, south of which
optimal maritime/tropical air should remain.

Both boundaries are expected to drift northward at a slower pace
than the net poleward motion of convection developing along or to
their north in the band of greatest lift. As such, the remains of
the supercell, which produced a brief apparent TDS around 610Z,
should move obliquely over a more-stable boundary layer with time
and remain more disorganized, but may be sustained as elevated
convection atop the shallow near-surface stable layer farther
east-northeast and inland.

Additional/trailing development may occur in an environment of weak
MLCINH and low LCL, though low-level convergence is modest due to
the weak near-surface winds. The modified 00Z TLH RAOB and forecast
soundings suggest MLCAPE around 250-500 J/kg along the southward
side of the boundaries, increasing above 500 J/kg over the Gulf.=20
Effective SRH from RAP soundings is generally under 100 J/kg, but
may be locally near 150-175 J/kg where effectively surface-based
parcels extend inland, based on the Eglin VWP.

..Edwards.. 12/08/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oTfhyFNXJZX7LRej-iQD3mQfVQpb7LdGamgTpv3Y0NS04PvYVl0Sk6w2TB5e_Vbz_FBHqx0Q$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON 30418559 30398617 30368641 30788587 30608500 30378516
30418559=20



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