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ACUS11 KWNS 092303
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092303=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-100030-
Mesoscale Discussion 1972
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 PM CST Thu Dec 09 2021
Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Louisiana and southern
Mississippi
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 092303Z - 100030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Loosely organized convective clusters will continue
tracking northeastward, capable of producing a localized damaging
wind gust or a brief tornado.
DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends depict some modest convective
organization over portions of southeastern LA, where a moist
boundary-layer (dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s) is supporting
low-topped surface-based showers. The VWP from LIX shows veering
winds in the lowest 2 km, resulting in 0-1 km SRH of 150-200 m2/s2
north of a diffuse warm front and deep-layer shear near 50 knots.
These factors will support some potential for a strong to locally
damaging wind gust, and a brief tornado cannot be entirely ruled
out. The localized nature of the threat and low probability of
occurrence limits the need for a Watch.
..Weinman/Grams.. 12/09/2021
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oD3Zu0Wr94XF-py3HnksSgHy5uPf0j02O56ZPivv2TZKr0VzNRBpmFjI_95nqflSOC1P31Uk$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 29969081 30119099 30569102 31039093 31179067 31179028
31038973 30808938 30458931 30068953 29878965 29779017
29839048 29969081=20
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