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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1972

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Dec 9 23:04:02 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 092303
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 092303=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-100030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1972
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0503 PM CST Thu Dec 09 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Louisiana and southern
    Mississippi

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 092303Z - 100030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Loosely organized convective clusters will continue
    tracking northeastward, capable of producing a localized damaging
    wind gust or a brief tornado.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends depict some modest convective
    organization over portions of southeastern LA, where a moist
    boundary-layer (dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s) is supporting
    low-topped surface-based showers. The VWP from LIX shows veering
    winds in the lowest 2 km, resulting in 0-1 km SRH of 150-200 m2/s2
    north of a diffuse warm front and deep-layer shear near 50 knots.
    These factors will support some potential for a strong to locally
    damaging wind gust, and a brief tornado cannot be entirely ruled
    out. The localized nature of the threat and low probability of
    occurrence limits the need for a Watch.

    ..Weinman/Grams.. 12/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oD3Zu0Wr94XF-py3HnksSgHy5uPf0j02O56ZPivv2TZKr0VzNRBpmFjI_95nqflSOC1P31Uk$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 29969081 30119099 30569102 31039093 31179067 31179028
    31038973 30808938 30458931 30068953 29878965 29779017
    29839048 29969081=20



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