• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1974

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Dec 10 03:50:01 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 100349
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 100349=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-100845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1974
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0949 PM CST Thu Dec 09 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of eastern Wyoming...southern South
    Dakota...and northern Nebraska

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 100349Z - 100845Z

    SUMMARY...Heavy snow with rates of 1-1.5 in/hr are expected to
    develop tonight from eastern Wyoming and spread east-northeastward
    across southern South Dakota and northern Nebraska.

    DISCUSSION...A band of strong low/mid-level warm air advection
    preceding a deepening low-pressure system over eastern Colorado will
    gradually overspread portions of the central Great Plains during the
    overnight hours. As the increasing ascent moves over deepening
    subfreezing layers per the latest RAP and NAM forecast soundings,
    chances for heavy snowfall will gradually increase. A band of
    moderate snow is already in progress along the Nebraska/South Dakota
    border, which is contributing to low/mid-level saturation.

    The heavy snow will most likely develop across parts of eastern
    Wyoming and northwestern Nebraska, before shifting north/east across
    southern South Dakota and north-central Nebraska in the 06-09Z
    timeframe as suggested by the latest high-resolution model guidance.
    Latest forecast soundings suggest deep/saturated dendritic growth
    zones colocated with strong ascent aided by the plume of warm air
    advection. These factors, combined with a developing frontogenetic
    circulation will support snowfall rates of 1-1.5 in/hr.

    ..Weinman/Squitieri.. 12/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uJsrfFaIUuLyFyccCVH-XBeaMwRYj5UlbijqWAfWT71uLjd57oPybeUC_cUIqFRmz-ihY33h$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...LBF...UNR...CYS...

    LAT...LON 41890447 42230446 42770444 43100412 43290334 43330163
    43309973 43219902 42919907 42469902 42239928 42200009
    42210073 42230157 42230266 42170318 42080343 41890368
    41810398 41820429 41890447=20



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