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ACUS11 KWNS 102045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102044=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-102245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1979
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

Areas affected...Parts of west central through northeastern Missouri
and adjacent portions of southeastern Iowa and west central Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 102044Z - 102245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated supercell development potentially becoming
capable of producing tornadoes appears possible across parts of
north central Missouri prior to 6 PM CST. While it is not certain
that a watch will be needed, trends are being monitored for this
possibility.

DISCUSSION...The center of a deepening surface cyclone is now north
of Topeka, with a corridor of 3-5 mb 2-hourly surface pressure falls
along a developing warm frontal zone to its east shifting
east-northeastward across northern Missouri. This is occurring in
advance of consolidating, larger-scale mid-level troughing forecast
to progress east of the the Colorado Rockies into the central Great
Plains by 11/00Z. This is preceded by a short wave perturbation of
subtropical eastern Pacific origin, which appears to still include
one prominent mid-level cyclonic vorticity center approaching the
Kansas City area.

It appears that the stronger forcing for ascent associated with the
cyclonic vorticity center will progress east-northeast of the Kansas
City area, before substantive boundary-layer destabilization can
take place. However, models suggest that a narrow corridor of at
least modest, but deepening, boundary layer moisture is possible
along a 50-60+ kt southwesterly pre-frontal 850 mb jet axis across
western through northern Missouri. As the surface warm frontal zone
continues to advance north of the Missouri River/Interstate 70
corridor, the environment along it might become conducive to
isolated strong to severe storm development prior to 11/00Z,
particularly south of Chillicothe into areas southeast of
Kirksville.

Even with some moistening, relatively warm mid-level temperatures
may tend to minimize mixed-layer CAPE, but beneath 90-100 kt
southwesterly 500 mb flow, hodographs are forecast to become
favorable for supercells potentially accompanied by a risk for
producing tornadoes.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 12/10/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vLG34nUC2R2uGrZnswQMXHq6QZNwkWTB7kdSAlfyTTqWevAQYy3nRE5Ol_kp1ngCZcj8dUHS$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 39889333 40579133 39709124 39329135 38859228 38509349
39009388 39889333=20



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