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ACUS11 KWNS 102221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102220=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-102345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1981
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0420 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

Areas affected...Northeast Texas...far southeast Oklahoma...and far
southwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 102220Z - 102345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are possible
across portions of the Arklatex.

DISCUSSION...High based showers have developed along a dryline which
has recently passed through Dallas. These showers are now moving
into a more moisture rich airmass with dewpoints in the mid 60s.
This is yielding MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg beneath strong
mid-level flow and effective shear in excess of 60 knots. Therefore,
further intensification of these showers are possible. The threat
will likely remain isolated, but the environment is quite favorable
for supercells with an initial large hail threat with an increasing
tornado threat with eastward extent. The isolated nature of any
storm development may preclude the need for a watch, but if storm
intensity is great enough or if more storms develop, a watch may be
needed.

..Bentley/Grams.. 12/10/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!py4OiPnnoGjejiRn66WS-jD1Os5ANCVMZY0aa7Z2dT5gmlZDOTTJJ4noYTjSmlb-Y-tVOujI$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33279692 34019584 34579457 34189338 33319365 32189491
31809694 31979759 33279692=20



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