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ACUS11 KWNS 102318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102317=20
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-110045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1983
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0517 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

Areas affected...Northern Mississippi and portions of southwest
Tennessee.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 102317Z - 110045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Watch 52 may need to be expanded eastward into northern
Mississippi and western Tennessee

DISCUSSION...Showers continue to deepen in the warm air advection
regime along and east of the Mississippi River. As they deepen, some
low-level rotation has been evident on some of the better
mini-supercell structures. Expect this threat to continue as storms
deepen further in a region of 0 to 1 km SRH around 250 m2/s2 per
KNQA VWP. Eventual severe intensity is expected out of this
activity, but timing is the primary question. If these storms
intensify in the next hour, watch 552 may need to be expanded across
the remainder of the MEG CWA. However, if the storm intensity
remains muted for the next 60 to 90 minutes, this area may be
covered by an eventual watch which will likely be needed east of
tornado watch 552.

..Bentley/Grams.. 12/10/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sxYgYueYnj84w6PnhvRCB-Y3_-Pz21bd7q-ezXxYS03QQA8Qcz7CHJRZqmnqPS40pLH8K0Yz$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 35448926 35798849 35268800 34238820 33788858 33838977
34109032 35448926=20



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