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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1985

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Dec 10 23:53:05 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 102353
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 102352=20
    KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-110115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1985
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0552 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 102352Z - 110115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...A new tornado watch is needed downstream of tornado watch
    552.

    DISCUSSION...Warm air advection showers have started producing
    lightning across portions of southern Illinois and western Kentucky.
    Expect a slow increase in storm coverage and intensity across this
    region. This activity (including a tornado warned storm entering
    Calloway County, Kentucky) will move east of tornado watch 552 in
    the next 30 to 60 minutes. The HPX VWP shows a very favorable
    low-level shear environment with 0-1 km SRH around 400 m2/s2
    indicating the potential for strong tornadoes. Therefore a
    downstream tornado watch will be needed. The eastward extent of the
    threat will be limited due to decreasing instability, but at least
    some threat is expected to near I-65. This area will likely need to
    be in a watch for an extended period due to multiple rounds of
    convection continuing for most of the night.

    ..Bentley/Grams.. 12/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pUN1laVDA4x3P_DpNVDpTp2Cuc2ESKn4m8WUqS2SJ5m1eIpEvxmmuMQ_21UcKem6cR6Lezt7$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

    LAT...LON 38208699 38428644 38408549 37798549 35988660 35158758
    35848828 36978790 38208699=20



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