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ACUS11 KWNS 110119
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110118=20
INZ000-ILZ000-110245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1990
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0718 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

Areas affected...Central and Eastern Illinois and western and
central Indiana.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 110118Z - 110245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado watch will be needed within the next hour across
portions of Illinois and Indiana.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of supercells has developed across
eastern Missouri and will move into central Illinois and eventually
Indiana during the overnight hours. Dewpoints are only in the mid to
upper 50s across Indiana and eastern Illinois at this time which
yields limited instability in the region. However, the strong
low-level jet will continue to advect low-level moisture northward
with the 00Z HRRR showing low 60s dewpoints advecting northward
ahead of the storms as they move into Indiana. This will yield
MLCAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg. This instability combined with an
extremely favorable wind field (90 knots of 0-6 km shear and over
600 m2/s2 0 to 1 km SRH per ILX VWP) should continue a significant
severe weather threat through the overnight hours with primary
threats of damaging winds and tornadoes (a few of which may be
strong). A tornado watch will be needed within the hour to cover
this threat.

..Bentley/Grams.. 12/11/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tr7Oa4QYhOLB0xBgGVjM1Mw_5Y1yxcSF867EporJC-DTtNPLG9KX_zHyxmCuWIUawaYEm4jx$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 40478989 40848822 40988709 40408520 39518538 38778563
38468670 38508801 38608876 40478989=20



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