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ACUS11 KWNS 110253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110253=20
ILZ000-110430-
Mesoscale Discussion 1996
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0853 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021
Areas affected...portions of central into southern IL
Concerning...Tornado Watch 552...553...557...
Valid 110253Z - 110430Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 552, 553, 557 continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watches 552,
553 and 557. A locally higher tornado threat may evolve with a more
dominant storm at the southern end of a line of storms.
DISCUSSION...Multiple linear thunderstorm segments with embedded
supercell structures have recently congealed into a more coherent
squall-line structure across central and southern Illinois. Storms
within this squall have a history of producing damaging gusts over
70 mph as well as isolated tornadoes. Widespread 60F dewpoints
overspread by 6-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates are contributing to
1000 J/kg MLCAPE per 02Z mesoanalysis, amid minimal convective
inhibition. The latest mesoanalysis shows widespread effective bulk
shear exceeding 80 kts with ILX and PAH VWPs depicting long, curved
hodographs (contributing to 300-500 0-1 km SRH). Given the
impressive shear profiles, damaging gusts and tornadoes will remain
a concern for at least a few more hours.=20
At the southern end of the line, more dominant supercell structures
have produced TDSs, and are progressing across an unimpeded
low-level airmass, characterized by mid 60s F dewpoints. The
impressive low-level shear, adequate moisture, and open warm sector
may support a locally higher tornado threat with these storms, and a
strong tornado is possible.
..Squitieri/Grams.. 12/11/2021
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!stx7lUtYFVof_NeH91NOPgeQGWTt2VUeW4Sqszel4C-5Axt32N2uKkAEjHRPF8UhsBTPWTVQ$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38718789 38698825 38638893 38668938 38728965 38858997
39538981 40518931 40748889 40878829 40708780 40308756
39638762 38968771 38718789=20
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