• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1996

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Dec 11 02:53:36 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 110253
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 110253=20
    ILZ000-110430-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1996
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0853 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

    Areas affected...portions of central into southern IL

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 552...553...557...

    Valid 110253Z - 110430Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 552, 553, 557 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watches 552,
    553 and 557. A locally higher tornado threat may evolve with a more
    dominant storm at the southern end of a line of storms.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple linear thunderstorm segments with embedded
    supercell structures have recently congealed into a more coherent
    squall-line structure across central and southern Illinois. Storms
    within this squall have a history of producing damaging gusts over
    70 mph as well as isolated tornadoes. Widespread 60F dewpoints
    overspread by 6-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates are contributing to
    1000 J/kg MLCAPE per 02Z mesoanalysis, amid minimal convective
    inhibition. The latest mesoanalysis shows widespread effective bulk
    shear exceeding 80 kts with ILX and PAH VWPs depicting long, curved
    hodographs (contributing to 300-500 0-1 km SRH). Given the
    impressive shear profiles, damaging gusts and tornadoes will remain
    a concern for at least a few more hours.=20

    At the southern end of the line, more dominant supercell structures
    have produced TDSs, and are progressing across an unimpeded
    low-level airmass, characterized by mid 60s F dewpoints. The
    impressive low-level shear, adequate moisture, and open warm sector
    may support a locally higher tornado threat with these storms, and a
    strong tornado is possible.

    ..Squitieri/Grams.. 12/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!stx7lUtYFVof_NeH91NOPgeQGWTt2VUeW4Sqszel4C-5Axt32N2uKkAEjHRPF8UhsBTPWTVQ$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 38718789 38698825 38638893 38668938 38728965 38858997
    39538981 40518931 40748889 40878829 40708780 40308756
    39638762 38968771 38718789=20



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