• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2002

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Dec 11 04:26:07 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 110426
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 110425=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-110600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2002
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1025 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

    Areas affected...much of Indiana

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 557...

    Valid 110425Z - 110600Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 557 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 557, and
    may progress eastward across much of Indiana. Damaging gusts are
    expected to be the main threat across northern into central Indiana,
    with a couple of brief tornadoes possible across southern Indiana.
    An additional Tornado Watch issuance may be needed in southern
    Indiana.

    DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms, including occasional embedded
    supercells, persists across central and eastern parts of Tornado
    Watch 557. Mainly strong/damaging gusts have been observed over the
    past couple of hours, though a TDS (suggesting the presence of a
    tornado) has recently been noted in Coles, County IL. Across
    Indiana, a near saturated low-level airmass is in place, with
    surface observations showing both temperatures and dewpoints in the
    mid to upper 50s F in northern/central IN, with lower 60s F temperatures/dewpoints observed in southern IN.=20

    Given the modest low-level temperatures and mid-level lapse rates,
    buoyancy is currently poor across IN, with modest convective
    inhibition in place. Since low-level airmass recovery is not
    expected to be overly robust across northern/central IN,
    near-surface based storms may support occasional strong to damaging
    wind gusts. A relatively greater threat for damaging gusts and
    perhaps a couple of tornadoes may develop farther south in southern
    IN where the richer low-level moisture is in place. A downstream
    Tornado Watch may be needed in southern IN.

    ..Squitieri/Grams.. 12/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sSIs8O6aJyjfSg1Tfa4hjB-aBuGu9xmrXuufWAYDQ5DZzcZIFLFElKZsWJEycQPYenpMy5HS$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

    LAT...LON 38688735 40058754 40978735 41338701 41438673 41488650
    41518625 41508576 41368548 40878502 40438490 39958495
    39318502 38978516 38788608 38688735=20



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