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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2005

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Dec 11 05:28:36 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 110528
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 110528=20
    INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-110700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2005
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1128 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

    Areas affected...far southeast Missouri into east-central Illinois

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 557...559...

    Valid 110528Z - 110700Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 557, 559 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watches 557 and
    559. Large hail and damaging gusts remain the main threats, though a
    tornado or two is possible, especially with the storms approaching
    eastern Illinois.

    DISCUSSION...A line of semi-discrete storms (including supercells)
    continues across western portions of Tornado Watches 557 and 559.
    Despite several preceding storms earlier in the day, strong
    low-level warm-air advection in advance of a 992 mb surface low has
    maintained modest buoyancy ahead of the ongoing line of storms, with
    mid to upper 60s F temperatures and mid 60s F dewpoints supporting
    up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE and minimal convective inhibition. As such,
    large hail and damaging gusts may accompany the stronger storms over
    the next few hours. Despite veering low-level winds, strong speed
    shear is contributing to 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH, so a tornado or
    two also remains possible.

    ..Squitieri/Grams.. 12/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sjixT2OKDm0xt417Qp02QI4AY0Kkf3QK4Ohd9l8lO69We-c_5GHPHYQw4P3aADwzYAU167No$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 37309005 38548920 39218866 39938799 40168732 40048696
    39628666 38888681 38218735 37728767 37388813 37108902
    37309005=20



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