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ACUS11 KWNS 110703
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110702=20
KYZ000-110830-

Mesoscale Discussion 2009
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021

Areas affected...portions of central into eastern KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 110702Z - 110830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind
gusts and a couple of tornadoes will continue across parts of
central into eastern KY overnight. A new watch will be needed.

DISCUSSION...Severe storms, in particular just southwest of
Louisville, and to the west of Bowling Green, continue to exhibit
rotation and periodic tornado debris signatures in radar data. The
activity across north-central KY is nearing the edges of WW 554,
while the south-central KY storms will not move out of the watch
before it is set to expire at 08z. The environment will remain
favorable for severe storms and tornadoes for a few more hours as
convection tracks east into eastern KY.=20

The eastward extent of the severe threat is somewhat uncertain,
though low level moisture decreases considerably from roughly Rowan
to Bell counties in eastern KY, where dewpoints are generally in the
mid/upper 50s. This likely delineates the eastward extent of the
greater severe threat and a new watch across eastern portions of WFO
LMK and western portions of WFO JKL's domain will likely be needed
soon.

..Leitman/Edwards.. 12/11/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oEELg4HT3ji206S_oA3s-O6QViSZMo3fki5vnOwpDSb_-b4rYCUmo2CBCAoLa9TUkby3_V-D$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON 36648604 36748631 37008659 37468635 38298517 38498473
38578438 38558408 38388352 38118331 37828316 37558324
37328344 36888394 36638466 36638551 36638581 36648604=20



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