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ACUS11 KWNS 110706
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110705=20
KYZ000-110800-

Mesoscale Discussion 2010
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021

Areas affected...portions of southwestern Kentucky

Concerning...Tornado Watch 554...

Valid 110705Z - 110800Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 554 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado potential persists for a mature supercell
structure across southwestern Kentucky. A strong tornado remains
possible over the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...A mature, intense supercell with a history of damaging,
long-track tornadoes is progressing across southern Kentucky, where
the latest mesoanalysis depicts nearly 500 m2/s2 of effective SRH
present. The 0640Z OHX VWP also shows nearly 300 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH
due to a long, curved hodograph driven by a strong LLJ. Mid 60s F
surface dewpoints are contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and
minimal convective inhibition ahead of the storm, suggesting that
tornado potential should continue for at least the next hour. Given
the impressive low-level shear and the presence of a 45 kt
rotational velocity signature accompanied by a TDS at 0655Z (per
KHPX radar), a strong tornado may already be in progress and
significant damage may accompany this storm.

..Squitieri/Edwards.. 12/11/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qL9n4TraAQxrep_cqxJO6K7slB-cpUekZzz--PJEkw4Yg5BKDN7B8xtf7PvIyscsfWT4tO98$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...

LAT...LON 36828691 37068691 37308671 37458608 37508557 37418533
37178534 36928545 36818566 36828606 36828691=20



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