This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1639208199-34671-1246
Content-Type: text/plain
Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

ACUS11 KWNS 110736
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110736=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-110930-

Mesoscale Discussion 2011
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021

Areas affected...portions of eastern Texas into central Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 110736Z - 110930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A line of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms is
expected to progress east over the next few hours. Damaging gusts
and perhaps an instance or two of marginally severe hail are
possible and a brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out.
Convective trends will continue to be monitored for the need of a WW
issuance.

DISCUSSION...An organized line of strong thunderstorms has developed
across eastern Texas within the axis of stronger instability (up to
2000 J/kg MLCAPE driven by 70+ F surface dewpoints). While linear
forcing and weak CINH have supported organized thunderstorm
development ahead of the cold front, overall deep-layer ascent is
relatively weak compared to the OH/TN Valley areas. Nonetheless, 07Z mesoanalysis shows 60+ kts of effective bulk shear. The favorable
kinematics are driven primarily by deep-layer speed shear, with only
modest low-level hodograph curvature depicted by the 0709Z POE VWP
and some of the 06Z RAP forecast soundings.=20

Some of the stronger storms in the line may support a few damaging
gusts and perhaps an instance or two of marginally severe hail given
adequate buoyancy/deep-layer shear. While the low-level directional
shear is modest, very strong low-level speed shear is contributing
to 200+ m2/s3 effective SRH, so a brief tornado or two may still
occur. As such, convective trends will continue to be monitored for
the need of a WW issuance.

..Squitieri/Edwards.. 12/11/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tDzW5NI7VI4aC5-joZjuCKI2BtqgC6iSc559xVizjv4yWVXkHBylFoUH70TSLIOW7XvXzj4W$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 29859761 31959509 32239400 32219275 32119204 31969195
31639219 31089274 30479358 29989433 29479516 29419626
29859761=20



------------=_1639208199-34671-1246
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1639208199-34671-1246--

--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)