• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2017

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Dec 11 10:02:40 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 111002
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111002=20
    LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-111200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2017
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0402 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021

    Areas affected...portions of far eastern Texas into northern and
    central Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 111002Z - 111200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts or a brief tornado cannot be
    completely ruled out with the strongest storms, though a more
    widespread severe event and a WW issuance is not currently
    anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...An organized squall line continues to sag southeastward
    across far east Texas into northwest Louisiana within a buoyancy
    axis, characterized by 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE (per 09Z mesoanalysis).
    Despite the modest buoyancy, deep-layer ascent remains weak.
    Nonetheless, 50+ kts of effective bulk shear persists across the
    region, and a damaging gust or perhaps a brief tornado cannot be
    completely ruled out with one or two of the strongest embedded
    storms. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, but an
    organized severe threat and WW issuance is not currently expected in association with this segment of the squall line.

    ..Squitieri/Edwards.. 12/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qzmPRaVLOAkKBAK0uKLI-O58YccRGAuCRzp6dTMoVmmPTeXok_uNF-tD9SGQwLA64-2bpKza$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

    LAT...LON 30089585 31579398 32099305 32199234 32129168 31819137
    31359135 30749193 30289291 30059405 29959484 30089585=20



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