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ACUS11 KWNS 111002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111002=20
LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-111200-
Mesoscale Discussion 2017
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021
Areas affected...portions of far eastern Texas into northern and
central Louisiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 111002Z - 111200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts or a brief tornado cannot be
completely ruled out with the strongest storms, though a more
widespread severe event and a WW issuance is not currently
anticipated.
DISCUSSION...An organized squall line continues to sag southeastward
across far east Texas into northwest Louisiana within a buoyancy
axis, characterized by 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE (per 09Z mesoanalysis).
Despite the modest buoyancy, deep-layer ascent remains weak.
Nonetheless, 50+ kts of effective bulk shear persists across the
region, and a damaging gust or perhaps a brief tornado cannot be
completely ruled out with one or two of the strongest embedded
storms. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, but an
organized severe threat and WW issuance is not currently expected in association with this segment of the squall line.
..Squitieri/Edwards.. 12/11/2021
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qzmPRaVLOAkKBAK0uKLI-O58YccRGAuCRzp6dTMoVmmPTeXok_uNF-tD9SGQwLA64-2bpKza$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 30089585 31579398 32099305 32199234 32129168 31819137
31359135 30749193 30289291 30059405 29959484 30089585=20
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