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ACUS11 KWNS 111648
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111647=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-111845-

Mesoscale Discussion 2021
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1047 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021

Areas affected...Southern AL into West-Central GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 111647Z - 111845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Potential exists from southwest AL into west-central GA
for a few stronger, more organized storms capable of damaging wind
gusts and/or a tornado or two.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a well-defined cold
front from near RMG in northwest GA back southwestward across
central AL and southeast MS into eastern LA. Thunderstorms are
ongoing along this front from northwest GA into central AL, with
recent radar and satellite imagery also showing increasing
pre-frontal showers and thunderstorms from southern MS into southern
AL and the far western FL Panhandle. Modest buoyancy exists within
the pre-frontal corridor from southern MS into northwest/northern GA
and recent satellite imagery shows an increasingly agitated cumulus
field. Consequently, the current trend of increasing pre-frontal
storm coverage is likely to continue as broad ascent persists.
Relatively warm mid-level temperatures will likely limit updraft
depth and duration, evidenced by the limited lightning within the
pre-frontal development thus far. Even so, strong southwesterly flow
aloft atop slightly more southerly low-level flow results in both
strong deep-layer vertical shear as well as robust low-level
helicity. These environmental factors suggest that updraft
organization is possible within any storms that are able to
mature/persist, with damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado or two
possible.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 12/11/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qvy5xityf7Y0DfKyCgvU3eRXrwK_8MVbIaAmaQ6q-asFaySXGHBalHQpgJZBKvuJNHPWZb7E$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 31458840 32778683 33578560 33648449 32978450 31678600
31028788 31458840=20



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