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ACUS11 KWNS 120030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120029=20
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-120300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2023
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 PM CST Sat Dec 11 2021

Areas affected...portions of eastern Pennsylvania...extreme
southeast New York...New Jersey...western Long Island...northeastern Maryland...northern Delaware

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 120029Z - 120300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to potentially damaging gusts may accompany a
narrow, low-topped squall line as it moves across portions of the
Mid Atlantic over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...A narrow, low-topped squall line is beginning to take
shape along the surface lee-trough axis in central PA. This
convective line has been developing atop a marine-tropical surface
airmass, defined by mid 50s F surface temperatures/dewpoints.
However, from roughly York to Lehigh County, PA eastward, mid to
upper 60s F temperatures coincide with low 60s F dewpoints. Modified
22Z RAP forecast soundings for the 00Z period suggest scant
low-level buoyancy resides ahead of the developing low-topped
squall. Nonetheless, an impressive kinematic environment is in
place, with 50+ kts of effective bulk shear in place and a strong
LLJ contributing to 50+ kt flow 400 m AGL. As such, mechanical or microphysically driven downward momentum transport may foster strong
to damaging wind gusts should the squall line intensify further, and
a severe gust or two cannot be ruled out.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 12/12/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o873O1OMANOxUydqdYA6lN2XUhBfs8XxXpclfX0knpFpy80kuHNb8sCKKgJo0TIZhOaoKl-J$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 38867514 38927586 39147643 39367679 39667702 39867707
40177679 41187604 41707552 41827476 41687418 41267359
40927360 40157398 39597418 39137456 38957475 38887507
38867514=20



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