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ACUS11 KWNS 120250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120249=20
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-120445-

Mesoscale Discussion 2024
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0849 PM CST Sat Dec 11 2021

Areas affected...portions of Massachusetts...southern New Hampshire

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 120249Z - 120445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple strong wind gusts may accompany a low-topped line
of showers progressing across portions of New England over the next
couple of hours. A WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Very strong deep-layer ascent associated with a 70+ kt
LLJ, overspread by a 100-150 kt 300 mb jet streak, is contributing
to the forcing of a low-topped line of showers. Current MRMS mosaic
radar data shows 30 dBZ echoes struggling to reach 20 kft.
Nonetheless, the GYX 00Z observed sounding depicted 50 kt wind
speeds around 500 m AGL, suggesting that any efficient mechanical
downward momentum transport within the low-topped line of showers
may support continued strong wind gusts for the next few hours,
until the line moves off shore. Nonetheless, buoyancy is negligible
across New England. As such, organized/widespread severe winds seem
unlikely, and a WW issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 12/12/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!urlu45BSx2_3C5ufzP3qrLe979JD6c8e4Nduff4MZ7pXeSsXqWP1wYSC24bOmXBxuBDhnKgb$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

LAT...LON 42287366 42847299 43257261 43357205 43447128 43407071
42957043 42387037 42147065 42087129 42047209 42077265
42147336 42287366=20



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