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ACUS11 KWNS 151343
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151342=20
COZ000-NMZ000-151515-

Mesoscale Discussion 2026
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

Areas affected...portions of northeast NM into southeast CO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 151342Z - 151515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Shallow convection may continue to enhance wind gust
potential along the eastward-surging cold front for a couple more
hours this morning across southeast CO and northeast NM.

DISCUSSION...A band of convection, including shallow thunderstorms,
along a cold front is quickly shifting east into portions of
southeast CO/northeast NM this morning. Background low/mid level
flow is already strong with 40-50 kt winds within a few hundred feet
of the surface noted in regional RAOBs and VWP data. Convectively
enhanced severe gusts have been noted at several observation sites
across north-central NM the past hour or so. While instability is
scant, strong gusts accompanied by convection may continue for a
couple more hours before convection weakens as it encounters a more
hostile environment amid increasing inhibition and an EML around
850-700 mb across the High Plains of eastern CO/NM. A watch is not
currently expected.

..Leitman/Grams.. 12/15/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rVTtRypbEe-_4-mgL3ktcH7Rhq-wrjGeH0zd0xHlxyfZjc0LUTf9YwMz7YhvzGu8Xk75SDar$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36550308 36000362 35540431 35370529 35400550 35670569
36180556 36990541 37730545 38180535 38460504 38630461
38650356 38220313 37290296 36550308=20



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